Brexit fears weigh on markets in euro-area periphery

Blog post

Brexit fears weigh on markets in euro-area periphery

Markets are beginning to price in the possibility that the EU will look different on the 24th of June.

Publishing date: 14 June 2016
Authors: Alvaro Leandro Maria Demertzis

It had slowly started at the end of May but took a very distinct turn for the worse around the 7^th of June, when Brexit polls started picking up, and even Bremain.

The pound sterling is on a clear declining path, against both the dollar as well as the euro.

But the euro area is also beginning to react. The Athens stock exchange took the hardest hit with a cumulative reduction of 9.0% since the 7th. But similarly, other countries saw losses upwards of 6%.

Government bond yields saw some movement (10-year yields) but not as significant (28 bp for Greece and 9.4bp for PT).

As we approach the final week before the referendum, we expect to see more volatility in the markets.

About the authors

Alvaro Leandro

Álvaro Leandro Fernández-Gil, a Portuguese and Spanish citizen, worked at Bruegel as a Research Assistant from November 2014 until July 2016 in the area of Global and European Macroeconomics. Prior to this, Álvaro worked as a Research Assistant at “la Caixa” Research. He has also worked as an intern at the Sustainable Development Network of the World Bank. He holds an undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Sussex, and a master in Specialised Economic Analysis from the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Universitat Pompeu Fabra).

The subject of his Master's thesis was the inter-connectivity in the financial system, and its consequences for systemic risk and regulation. At the University of Sussex he wrote a dissertation on Political Business Cycles.

Álvaro’s research interests include Macroeconomics, International Finance and Political Economy.

He is fluent in English, French, Portuguese and Spanish.
Maria Demertzis

Maria Demertzis is a Leader at ESF, The Conference Board Europe, former Senior fellow at Bruegel and part-time Professor of Economic Policy at the Florence School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute. She was Bruegel’s Deputy Director until December 2022. She has previously worked at the European Commission and the research department of the Dutch Central Bank. She has also held academic positions at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government in the USA and the University of Strathclyde in the UK, from where she holds a PhD in economics. She has published extensively in international academic journals and contributed regular policy inputs to both the European Commission's and the Dutch Central Bank's policy outlets. She contributes regularly to national and international press and has regular column that appears twice a month in various EU newspapers and on Bruegel’s opinion page.