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The 2019-2024 European Commission rightly made ‘open strategic autonomy’ the centrepiece of its geopolitical strategy. The term ‘strategic autonomy’ was meant to capture resilience and self-reliance where necessary. ‘Open’ was the counterbalancing factor suggesting that open-trade policies must continue to be the bedrock of the European Union approach. The two components of the strategy can and should be married together.

Pursuing open strategic autonomy is the appropriate insurance policy to avoid sliding towards protectionism. The EU should continue to be the champion of multilateralism and be ready to build coalitions in support of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and its reform. The US administration is unwilling to play this role and China is incapable of doing so, so the EU must be the voice of reason at a time when global cooperation is needed more than at any time in recent history, including to fight climate change.

What changes as a result of Trump? Trump has threatened to double down on the tariffs against China and the rest of the world. His new administration might increase US tariffs to 60 percent on potentially all imports from China, and to 10 percent to 20 percent on potentially all imports from other trading partners, including the EU. This new violation by the US of its WTO commitments would not only negatively affect EU exports but would also undermine the rules-based multilateral trading system.

The European Commission’s approach. In the 2024-2029 Commission, the Trade Commissioner is also responsible for ‘economic security’. This begs the question of whether and how economic security and trade openness will go together. Hints are given in the instruction to Maroš Šefčovič, the Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, that he should design and implement an EU trade policy that “focuses on the core objectives of competitiveness, security and sustainability” and will “ensure Europe leads and improve[s] rules-based trade, notably through a reformed and strengthened World Trade Organization [sic] and through its own network of trade agreements” ¹ Mission letter from Ursula von der Leyen to Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner-designate for Trade and Economic Security, 17 September 2024, . . Šefčovič is also called on to develop an economic security doctrine, which should better clarify the relationship between promoting, partnering and protecting economic security.

Assessment and updated recommendations. The Commission’s renewed commitment to rules-based trade and the centrality of the multilateral WTO is highly welcome, especially in view of the threatening declarations by President Trump. It is equally positive that the Commission intends to pursue and finalise new regional and bilateral trade agreements with partners worldwide, a measure that will also help the EU navigate better the more dangerous world announced by Trump. It is crucial that the EU signs and ratifies the EU-Mercosur agreement ² See European Commission press release of 6 December 2024, ‘EU and Mercosur reach political agreement on groundbreaking partnership’, . . A third course of EU action in response to Trump’s tariff threat is to be ready to engage in discussions with the US to seek to avoid the risk of tariffs, and to retaliate if necessary.

The increased shift of EU trade policy from a single objective – economic efficiency – to multiple objectives – competitiveness, security and sustainability – which started during the 2019-2024 Commission, is bound to continue, and will probably be reinforced. This shift has already created and will likely create more trade-offs, which will need to be made explicit and quantified in order to guide political choices. But whatever choices are made, they should respect multilateral rules.