External publication

The New Euro Area Inflation Indicator and Target: The Right Reset?

Testimony to the Monetary Dialogue Preparatory Meeting of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

Publishing date
09 November 2021
Authors
Zsolt Darvas

On 9 November 2021, Zsolt Darvas, Bruegel Senior fellow, gave testimony to the  Preparatory Meeting of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) on the topic “The New Euro Area Inflation Indicator and Target: The Right Reset?”. The presentation was based on the  he co-authored with Catarina Martins.

He emphasised that the ECB’s recent monetary policy strategy review resulted in useful changes to the monetary policy framework, but he highlighted four important questions. First, the causes of the ECB’s miserable forecasting failure (whereby all forecasts made between 2014-2019 predicted large increases in euro-area core inflation, but core inflation remained stable around 1% ) is unknown. Second, the ECB adopted the FED’s previous inflation target (flexible inflation targeting) and the reason for not adopting the FED’s new target (average inflation targeting) is unclear. Third, more clarity is needed on the influence of financial stability concerns on monetary policy and its medium-term time horizon, also to ensure ECB accountability. Fourth, the intention to include the costs of owner-occupied housing in the inflation indicator is welcome, but in contrast to the “rental equivalence” method used in the US, ECB and Eurostat seem to favour the “net acquisition” approach, which would involve an asset price component in the inflation indicator.

About the authors

  • Zsolt Darvas

    Zsolt Darvas is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel and part-time Senior Research Fellow at the Corvinus University of Budapest. He joined Bruegel in 2008 as a Visiting Fellow, and became a Research Fellow in 2009 and a Senior Fellow in 2013.

    From 2005 to 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest. Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head.

    Zsolt holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest where he teaches courses in Econometrics but also at other institutions since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis.

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