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Why does Europe need to shed complacency and invest in armament?

Publishing date
23 September 2024
Authors
Guntram B. Wolff
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Two and half years into Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the question of armament and the speed of military procurement and production is gaining in importance – and Europe will have to step up. Europe, in particular Germany, has for decades outsourced its security to the United States. In a recent Bruegel Analysis, we summarise our work showing that procurement speeds in Europe remain too slow for it to be able to address security threats on its own for decades to come. Meanwhile, Russian military production has massively increased to a level where it produces the entirety of German stocks of key weapon systems in less than a year.  

Yet, despite the frightening numbers, many in the security community believe that Germany ultimately can rely on the US for securing its defence, for example when it comes to air supremacy. Many are also a deeply sceptical towards any European approach to defence procurement. This is unsurprising: Europe’s reliance on the US has been beneficial and has served European interests well. Moreover, EU defence procurement initiatives have not been very successful.  

However, it is time to overcome the excessive reliance on the US. The German and European security community must leave its comfort zone for three reasons. First, the US must balance geopolitical competing interests, and it is becoming a fragile political ally. Second, the US production capacity of military goods is facing constraints because of the key weapon systems it delivers to allies in Asia, the Middle East and Ukraine. Third, with growing defence budgets, it will be easier to overcome vested national interests in defence. As Europe increases its own defence production, it has the choice to do so country by country at high costs or to exploit scale economies by integrating its markets. A European debt fund for (air) defence, which is legally possible, would strengthen joint procurement, speed up the expansion of defence capabilities and support market integration. A stronger Europe will strengthen the transatlantic alliance. 

Read more on Europe’s need to expand defence capabilities in the Analysis: ‘Fit for war in decades: sluggish German rearmament versus surging Russian defence production’&Բ;

For more on how Europe can create a European debt fund for air defence, read the policy brief: ‘Financing European air defence through European Union debt’&Բ;

The Why Axis is a weekly newsletter distributed by Bruegel, bringing you the latest research on European economic policy. 

About the authors

  • Guntram B. Wolff

    Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). 

    From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

    An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020,  ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and advisory board of Elcano. He is also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media. 

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