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How can Europe reinforce security cooperation and coherence after Trump's victory?

Publishing date
12 November 2024
Authors
Guntram B. Wolff
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The consequences for Europe of the re-election of President Donald Trump are far-reaching. The impacts will be felt across the board, including on the European economy, trade, technology, climate, democracy and security.

On security, Trump's victory has increased uncertainty over the continuation of the current US guarantee for European allies, and over the support the US will provide to Ukraine. Europe will need to step up: by investing more in its own security and by increasing Ukraine support. A stronger European security response will depend crucially on the European defence industrial base.

Increasing national defence budgets, as Poland, for example, has done very convincingly, should be complemented by EU funding instruments. But larger budgets alone will not be enough, especially if production capacities increase too slowly and most of the budget increase is absorbed by higher prices. To be effective, a European defence industrial strategy will need to focus on bringing down the costs of defence products while scaling-up production. Barriers to defence market integration impede production scale and cost effectiveness. So does imperfect enforcement of NATO standards.

The EU could play a greater role in boosting industrial capacities through funding mechanisms, removal of market barriers, enforcement of standards and joint procurement. For this, greater cooperation between national defence ministries, NATO and EU institutions will be crucial. The establishment of a between the European Commission and NATO is welcome. Trump’s election makes deeper European security cooperation a necessity. The new European defence Commissioner will need to play a crucial role in deepening security cooperation between the EU and NATO. Will Europe be ready?

The Why Axis is a weekly newsletter distributed by Bruegel, bringing you the latest research on European economic policy. 

About the authors

  • Guntram B. Wolff

    Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). 

    From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

    An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020,  ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and advisory board of Elcano. He is also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media. 

Keyword
WhyAxis newsletter
Language
English

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