�ԹϺ�����

BRICS has grown – from five to nine official members since the beginning of 2024 – and the group’s summit in Kazan, Russia, from 22-24 October was revealing about its main intention: changing the global order for the benefit of the Global South, as represented by BRICS.

The Kazan outcome was summarised in a that resonates as anti-Western rhetoric in a new cold war. Much of this, of course, arises from Russian president Vladimir Putin’s grievances with the West. However, Putin, who is increasingly dependent on China to continue with his war in Ukraine, cannot push the BRICS towards a more confrontational stance without the consent of China’s President Xi.

China is clearly behind the BRICS expansion. In addition to Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa, the group has added Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Another 13 nations have become partner countries (Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam). China’s role as ‘first among equals’ in BRICS could convert the group into a sub-set of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The Kazan declaration pushes for a multipolar world, but its concept of multipolarity opposes the West directly in several significant ways.

The declaration appropriates the same concepts supported by liberal democracies, including cooperation and the respect for international law, including nuclear non-proliferation. This contrasts markedly with the political choices of many of the BRICS regimes, not least Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and his threat to use nuclear weapons. The Kazan declaration also criticises the West for not living by its own values.

Another important point in the Kazan declaration is the high standing attached to the United Nations, in particular its centrality in terms of cooperation among sovereign states to achieve peace and international security. This support for the UN, however, comes with a strong push for reform to better represent the interests of the Global South.

Finally, the Kazan declaration also aims at redesigning the international monetary system by reforming multilateral institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, by supporting non-Western institutional alternatives to these bodies, such as the , and by pushing for an end to pre-eminent global role of the US dollar.

On de-dollarisation, which was introduced at the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa, further steps have been taken, but the Kazan declaration has not gone as far as Putin probably hoped. BRICS Clear – a cross-border settlement and depository structure designed to trade securities without the need for dollar conversions, using block-chain technology and digital tokens backed by national currencies – was not agreed. This is not surprising as some BRICS members, in particular the UAE, are still pegged to the dollar and many worry that the push will be mostly to use renminbi and less so other domestic currencies.

Nevertheless, the push from Russia and China – the two potential beneficiaries from a de-dollarisation effort, either to avoid sanctions and/or to internationalise their currencies – was recognised in the Kazan declaration, with an agreement to conduct a BRICS Clear feasibility analysis.

A BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement was also included in the declaration, with the aim of including alternative eligible BRICS currencies in the existing swap lines between BRICS countries. It should be noted that most of those swap lines have been extended by the People’s Bank of China and, therefore, use the renminbi as the vehicular currency against each other local currency. This is further proof of how BRICS is ending up as a hub and spoke model with China as the centre.

Finally, to support the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries, a new BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism will be developed. How such a mechanism can foster the use of local currencies without going all the way to BRICS Clear is yet to be explored.

All in all, the West and the rest of the world should pay more attention to the BRICS, not only because it is growing in size but also because it is evolving into an anti-Western bloc with the firm intention of changing the global order. China’s dominance of the group – with Putin’s able support – makes it even more urgent for the West to watch and also to react, with a better offer to the countries of the Global South.

This First Glance was also published on in Spanish.

This is an output of China Horizons, Bruegel's contribution in the project Dealing with a resurgent China (DWARC). This project has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101061700.