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The European Union is ready for the 2023-24 winter gas season

Demand cuts, alternative supply and the green energy rollout mean the EU likely has enough gas for winter, even if Russian supplies are cut completely

Ben McWilliams, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

To what extent can urbanisation mitigate the negative impact of population ageing in China?

Our analysis reveals that ageing accounts for only about 1 percentage point of the GDP growth rate deceleration over the past decade.

Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu

What will it cost the European Union to pay its economic recovery debt?

Servicing the EU debt until 2058 seems feasible, despite increased borrowing costs, but member countries must make choices about budget funding

Grégory Claeys, Conor McCaffrey and Lennard Welslau

The struggle to cut emissions from international aviation and shipping

Three possible policy pathways could lead to improvement and systemic change in the aviation and maritime sectors.

Giovanni Sgaravatti

A quantitative evaluation of the European Commission’s fiscal governance proposal

This paper focuses on the fiscal adjustment that the first regulation would require of countries with debt above the treaty benchmarks.

Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

European Union debt financing: leeway and barriers from a legal perspective

The paper investigates the legal feasibility of the EU borrowing on the capital market to finance European public goods.

Sebastian Grund and Armin Steinbach

A new governance framework to safeguard the European Green Deal

This policy brief sets out policy proposals to enhance governance in order to safeguard EU decarbonisation.

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

The Digital Markets Act is about enabling rights, not obliging changes in market conditions

Compliance with the DMA will be about ensuring that users are empowered with rights to challenge gatekeepers

Christophe Carugati

Making sense of the European Commission’s fiscal governance reform plan

This Policy Brief offers proposals to enhance institutional self-commitment to implementation, with reputational consequences for non-implementation.

Lucio Pench

The Russian war economy: macroeconomic performance

The Russian economy has performed better than many expected since the war in Ukraine started, though the financial burden will be felt for some time.

Marek Dabrowski

Adapting the European Union AI Act to deal with generative artificial intelligence

The European Union’s draft AI Act already needs to be revised to account for the opportunities and harms of generative AI.

J. Scott Marcus

How Ukrainian gas storage can contribute to Europe’s security of supply

To top up stored gas volumes for the coming winter, Europe can use spare capacity in Ukraine.

Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann

Competition in generative artificial intelligence foundation models

This working paper examines how competition in foundation models (FMs) works.

Christophe Carugati

Globalisation and automation as sources of labour-market competition, and support for European Union unemployment insurance

Brian Burgoon, Gregorio Buzzelli, Francesco Nicoli and Stefano Sacchi

The oil price cap and embargo on Russia work imperfectly, and defects must be fixed

Violations of the G7 price cap on Russian oil are becoming evident, but Western countries still can tighten rules and reduce the cash flows to Russia.

Elina Ribakova, Benjamin Hilgenstock and Guntram B. Wolff

The Ukrainian war economy

This paper analyses Ukraine’s war economy management and performance, according to information available in June 2023.

Dmytro Boyarchuk and Marek Dabrowski