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Inflation inequality in the European Union and its drivers

A conceptual framework for the identification and governance of European public goods

How to find institutional arrangements for public-good provision, to maximise the benefits of public goods for EU members?

The macroeconomics of decarbonisation

At this event we launched the book "The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation: Implications and Policies"

The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation: Implications and Policies

What will it cost the European Union to pay its economic recovery debt?

Servicing the EU debt until 2058 seems feasible, despite increased borrowing costs, but member countries must make choices about budget funding

An estimate of the European Union’s long-term borrowing cost bill

Managing Expectations: Inflation and Monetary Policy

Launch of one of the IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters

Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2023

A symphony in progress: shaping a new agenda for Europe

The value added of central bank digital currencies

Can Central Bank digital currencies be considered as the weapons of finance?

The rising cost of European Union borrowing and what to do about it

Interest rates on the EU debt have risen substantially since 2022: what are the main drivers and implications and what to do about it?

How should the EU deal with its rising borrowing costs?

The longer-term fiscal challenges facing the European Union

Since 2020, the European Union has suffered two large shocks, which have created new fiscal challenges for the EU.

The Net-Zero Industry Act puts EU credibility at risk

The EU Net-Zero Industry Act looks like it’s been set up to keep everyone happy – and to achieve limited results.

The Net-Zero Industry Act puts EU credibility at risk

Finding the right balance (sheet): quantitative tightening in the euro area

Shaping the future of the European Union: a discussion on public goods

Should the EU play a greater role as a provider of public goods?

Liquidity risk, market power and the informational effects of policy

Does inflation hit the poor hardest everywhere?

Low-income households suffer most from high inflation, but in some European Union countries the inflation burden is felt more equally than others.

Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2022

The Annual Meetings are Bruegel's flagship event which gathers high-level speakers to discuss the economic topics that affect Europe and the world.

How rate increases could impact debt ratios in the euro area’s most-indebted countries

Debt-to-GDP ratios should continue to fall in euro-area countries despite rising interest rates, post 2023 the situation might vary across countries

A new European tool to deal with unjustified rising spreads

The ECB needs a new tool to prevent the current rise in spreads, triggered by monetary policy tightening, from escalating into a new euro-area crisis.

Fragmentation risk in the euro area: no easy way out for the European Central Bank

The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it

The low productivity of European firms: how can policies enhance the allocation of resources?

Economists take total factor productivity (TFP) as one of the most informative indicators of the state of a country's economy.

The Euro in 2022

An annual review of the euro published jointly by Fundación ICO and Fundación de Estudios Financieros to expand knowledge, raise awareness of the sing

Who is suffering most from rising inflation?

The lowest income households are suffering disproportionally from the current inflation increase, with rising energy prices the main culprit.

EU borrowing—time to think of the generation after next

Financing post-pandemic recovery via EU borrowing has proved remarkably straightforward. So why keep it temporary?

Next Generation EU borrowing: a first assessment

What is new about NGEU is not just the increase in the EU’s borrowing power, but also the nature of the expenditure.

The Sound of Economics Live: Unboxing the State of the Union 2021

In this episode, we look at the State of the Union address delivered by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

Monetary and macroeconomic policies at the crossroads

Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 2- In this session we would like to discuss monetary and macroeconomic policies after Covid-19.

Bruegel Annual Meetings, 1-3 September 2021

The 2021 Annual Meetings gathered high-level speakers and participants to discuss how to recover from the crises brought on by the Covid pandemic

How have the European Central Bank’s negative rates been passed on?

Negative rate cuts are not that different from ‘standard’ rate cuts. Like them, they reduce banks’ margins, but this effect does not appear to be ampl

EU debt vs national debts: friends or foes?

The EU will become into a major issuer of safe assets in the coming years. How will this interact with the debt issuance of European sovereign debts?

What Are the Effects of the ECB’s Negative Interest Rate Policy?

This paper explores the potential effects (and side effects) of negative rates in theory and examines the evidence to determine what these effects hav

The great COVID-19 divergence: managing a sustainable and equitable recovery in the European Union

Policymakers must act to prevent lasting divergence within the EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout from the pandemic.

Sovereign ratings during crises: is this time different?

Why, despite the increase in public debt levels around the world have sovereign ratings been largely unaffected by the COVID-19 crisis?

The ECB needs political guidance on secondary objectives

While EU Treaties clearly stipulate that the ECB “shall support the general objectives of the European Union”, it is not appropriate to simply stand b

How has COVID-19 affected inflation measurement in the euro area?

COVID-19 has complicated inflation measurement. Policymakers need to take this into account and should look at alternative measures of inflation to un

Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in times of Next Generation EU

Could Next Generation EU enable a better coordination of monetary and fiscal policy?

Corporate insolvencies during COVID-19: keeping calm before the storm

Measures in major economies have protected companies from COVID-19 related insolvency, but have also protected weak firms. Nevertheless, support shoul

The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD

The objective of MICROPROD, an EU-wide research project that runs until the end of 2021, is to understand what is driving the current productivity slo

Building a Euro-area Budget Inside the EU Budget: Squaring the Circle?

As part of a volume on the Multiannual Financial Framework, the EUI recently published a chapter by Grégory Claeys on the creation of a euro area budg

The evolution of European economic institutions during the COVID-19 crisis

This article discusses how the European institutions reacted and evolved during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in the first half of 2020.

For the euro there is no shortcut to becoming a dominant currency

As an international currency, the euro has always been a distant second to the dollar. The idea of a greater international role for the euro has been

How Can the European Parliament Better Oversee the European Central Bank?

This paper, written at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, assesses how the European Parliament holds the European Central

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2020 - Day 2

Second day of Bruegel Annual Meetings.

Bruegel Annual Meetings 1-3 September, 2020

Bruegel's flagship event transformed into a virtual conference for pandemic times

Is the EU Council agreement aligned with the Green Deal ambitions?

On 21 July, EU leaders agreed on a €1.8 trillion package that should boost the recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, but also contribute to the advancem

One last push is needed to improve the Just Transition Fund proposal

The European Parliament and the Council still have an opportunity to improve the Just Transition Fund by refocusing it on social support and basing fu

Is the COVID-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?

The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its

A Just Transition Fund – How the EU budget can help with the transition

On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing

The European Union’s SURE plan to safeguard employment: a small step forward

The new EU instrument to mitigate unemployment risks during an emergency (SURE) is too modest to have a significant impact the COVID-19 crisis beyond

The European Central Bank in the COVID-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate

To keep the euro-area economy afloat, the European Central Bank has put in place a large number of measures since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis

Rationale and limitations of SURE

This event will discuss SURE, a new European Union instrument for temporary ‘Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency'

Europe needs a Covid-19 Recovery Programme

Policymakers need to think long-term and start planning a broad investment scheme to reboot the European economy.

Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?

In responding to the global financial crisis, the ECB has pushed its monetary policy into unchartered territories . Today, it appears increasingly con

COVID-19 Fiscal response: What are the options for the EU Council?

It is time for the EU Council to make quick progress on the fiscal front and announce something as soon as possible to show that it taken full measure

What should be done to reduce euro-area spreads?

Spreads are rising again in the euro-area at the worst possible time, when fiscal policy is needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic and the related e

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

This report presents an overview of the recent trends of capital flows, focused especially on the past year. It provides a detailed analysis at the gl

How good is the European Commission’s Just Transition Fund proposal?

On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing

Berlin will make or break the European Green Deal

€1 trillion isn't enough for the European Green Deal and the EU's fiscal framework is constraining public investment. "Mrs Merkel, tear down this rule

A trillion reasons to scrutinise the Green Deal Investment Plan

The European Commission has revealed its €1 trillion investment plan for the European Green Deal. This will not be enough to unleash the expected “gre

The European Green Deal needs a reformed fiscal framework

The European Green Deal should include a sustainable investment strategy that will help citizens change behaviour and companies switch technologies. B

The next generation of digital currencies: in search of stability

Recent developments have re-opened the debate on the future of money. This Policy Contribution discusses two aspects: the implications of the rise of

Four pillars to make or break the European Green Deal

The recipe for a successful European Green Deal is as simple as it is breath-taking: to intelligently promote deep decarbonisation by accompanying the

How to make the European Green Deal work

Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a European Green Deal that would make Europe climate neutral by 2050. With this Policy Contribution, the authors pro

Challenges ahead for the European Central Bank: Navigating in the dark?

Since the second half of 2018, signs of a slowdown have been piling up in the euro area. The ECB will face major challenges in this potentially diffic

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019, 4-5 September

The 2019 Annual Meetings featured the launch of Bruegel's memos to the new European Leadership, proposing how to deal with future policy challenges

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019

Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.

‘Lo spread’: The collateral damage of Italy’s confrontation with the EU

The authors assess whether the European Commission's actions towards Italy since September 2018 have had a visible impact on the spread between Italia

Preparing for uncertainty

Memo to the president of the European Central Bank. Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia present the challenges that the next ECB pre

The evolution of the ECB governing council's decision-making

Before it is decided who will chair the governing council for the next eight years, the authors look back and examine precisely how decisions have bee

Soaring house prices in major cities: how to spot and moderate them

This article examines whether there are regional differences in house price growth within European countries and find a stronger cyclical pattern in c

How visible are independent fiscal institutions in public debate?

Independent fiscal institutions have no formal powers to act and have to rely on soft power to influence the budgetary process. This blog post investi

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, c

Does the Eurogroup's reform of the ESM toolkit represent real progress?

The deal reached on euro-zone reform at the December 4th Eurogroup is not ground-breaking. However, it contains a number of incremental but potentiall

A monetary policy framework for the European Central Bank to deal with uncertainty

In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialo

The distributional effects of climate policies

The distributional consequences are likely to be a major driver of future climate policies. Policymakers will not accept forceful decarbonisation poli

Italy’s new fiscal plans: the options of the European Commission

The Italian government has announced an increase of its deficit for 2019, breaking the commitment from the previous government to decrease it to 0.8%

Should we care about central bank profits?

The authors investigate the ECB’s profit-making activity of the last 20 years, assessing how this was achieved and the reasons why we should care more

The ECB is compromising the attractiveness of euro-area sovereign bonds

The ECB should refine its collateral framework in order to continue protecting its balance sheet without putting at risk the safe-asset status of sove

What should the EU do about the Turkish currency crisis?

The Turkish lira has been under significant pressure in recent weeks; in this blog post, the authors discuss the EU’s exposure to possible crisis in T

Cryptocurrencies and monetary policy

Can cryptocurrencies acquire the role of money? And what are the implications for central banks and monetary policy? Read the policy contribution to u

Is the ECB collateral framework compromising the safe-asset status of euro-area sovereign bonds?

Central banks’ collateral frameworks play an important role in defining what is considered as a safe asset. However, the ECB’s framework is unsatisfac

Are SBBS really the safe asset the euro area is looking for?

The European Commission is pushing to create a synthetic euro-area-wide safe asset in the form of sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS). However, SB

The Commission’s proposal for the next MFF: A glass half-full

The Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework provides a good basis for subsequent negotiations and includes a number of bold

Make euro-area sovereign bonds safe again

In their recent Policy Insight, the team of French and German authors suggest introducing sovereign bond-backed securities to play the role of safe as

EU budget post 2020: the next MFF

This is a closed-door event where we will discuss the EU budget post-2020.

New EMU stabilisation tool within the MFF will have minimal impact without deeper EU budget reform

The European Commission’s proposal for a new stabilisation instrument inside the EU budget for the countries of the economic and monetary union is dis

The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Time for a reset

It is only in the last decade that the EU has had an active policy to reintegrate workers who lost their jobs as a result of globalisation, through th

The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Easing the pain from trade?

With the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF), the EU now has an instrument to help workers negatively affected by trade find new jobs. Howev

Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, c

Flexicurity and labour market reforms in Europe

This event will discuss the potential of the flexicurity model as employment strategy and the way it could be implemented in European countries to be

How should the European Central Bank ‘normalise’ its monetary policy?

During the crisis, the ECB resorted to a number of unconventional monetary tools. This paper discusses how to phase out these policies and what the ‘n

The missing pieces of the euro architecture

What are the remaining fragilities of the Euro architecture? This policy contribution assesses the institutional reforms put in place during and after

Spotting excessive regional house price growth and what to do about it

Rapidly rising house prices are a well-known source of financial instability. This Policy Contribution examines whether there are regional differences

Europe and Japan: Monetary policies in the age of uncertainty

The 5th Bruegel - Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University conference will focus on monetary policy.

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2017, 7-8 September

The Annual Meetings are Bruegel’s flagship event.

Perspectives on Universal Basic Income

At this event, we discussed the possible benefits but also the possible disadvantages of Universal Basic Income.

A New Liquidity Risk Measure for the Chilean Banking Sector

This paper introduces a new metric for central banks – and in particular for the Central Bank of Chile – to measure liquidity risk in their banking se

Is the recent increase in long-term interest rates a threat to euro-area recovery?

After reaching historically low levels, European long-term sovereign yields experienced a notable rise at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. This

Micro- and macro-based methods in assessing the impact of investment

This workshop will discuss methods for accurately evaluating the performance of public and private investment initiatives.

Debunking 5 myths about Frexit

French elections are fast approaching and the debate on euro membership is now in full swing. ‘Frexit’ supporters promise that the benefits of leaving

Amsterdam’s boom-bust housing market needs its own mortgage limits

House prices in the Netherlands are on the rise again. But at the local level the pattern is very uneven: house prices in major cities are rising fast

What role for the financial markets in Europe?

The European financial system is too strongly bank-based. How can it be rebalanced to become favourable to growth and employment again? (This paper is

The future of the EU budget

What do we want to achieve with the EU budget? Is the current composition of expenditures appropriate? How can we assess the effectiveness of EU spend

Potential impediments to long-term investment

How can we encourage long-term investment in Europe? Many factors hinder long-term investment but are there risks involved in reviewing existing regul

Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. This secular decline in long-term sovereign yields is not limited to

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016, 6-7 September

The Annual Meetings are a high point in Bruegel's calendar.

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016

The Annual Meetings are a high point in Bruegel's calendar.

Now is the time to open Strasbourg’s ‘Bronislaw Geremek’ European University

It is the right time to revive the proposal made 10 years ago by Bronislaw Geremek and Jean-Didier Vincent to create a truly European University in th

The Juncker plan needs to be turned on its head

The Juncker Plan was launched one year ago to boost investment in Europe: has the plan been successful so far? How can we better use the EIB to increa

Assessing the Juncker Plan after one year

With the Juncker Plan, the European Commission intends to support valuable risky projects by expanding the risk capacity of the EIB. But has the new E

Active labour market policies, what works?

How are Europe's labour markets performing, and what policies can best help them function?

How to reform EU fiscal rules

The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives of pu

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework

The current European fiscal framework is inefficient. It should be replaced with a system based on rules more suited to the two core objectives: publ

The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme: limits and risks

The ECB has made a series of changes to its QE programme in order to expand the universe of purchasable assets and have more flexibility in the execut

Central banking after the great recession

Have Central Banks lost their ability to control domestic inflation? Are macroprudential tools sufficient to ensure financial stability? Do new moneta

Have central banks lost their ability to control inflation?

The potential effects of global integration on inflation dynamics, and whether this could affect the ability of central banks to fulfil their mandates

Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?

This Policy Contribution reviews the impact of globalisation on inflation dynamics, and it analyses whether and how this affects the ability of centra

European Economic Developments and Governance

Secular Stagnation in Europe and Japan

This is the 3rd conference in a series of events jointly organised by Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University and Bruegel

Los trémulos cimientos del 'plan Juncker'

Los detalles del plan alimentan el escepticismo

Keep calm … and reach a deal ASAP

A clear majority of Greek citizens has decided to decline the creditors’ proposal that was on the table on June 25. This result should not be over-int

Juncker plan: the EIB in the driver’s seat

After weeks of negotiations with the European Commission and the Council of the EU, the European Parliament on 24 June adopted the text.

The effects of ultra-loose monetary policies on inequality

This Policy Contribution was prepared for the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. It assesses the impact of ultra-loose mo

Inflation Surprises

While it is still too early to tell if the ECB QE programme launched on March 9 will manage to bring back inflation towards the target in the medium t

ECB Quantitative Easing on track

On 9 March 2015 the ECB began purchasing European sovereign and agency bonds and supranational debt securities under the Public Sector Purchase Progra

The financial stability risks of ultra-loose monetary policy

This Policy Contribution was prepared for the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. It draws lessons for the euro-area based

European Central Bank quantitative easing: the detailed manual

This Policy Contribution examines the detail of how quantitative easing will actually take place in the euro area and its implications, following

The “Plucking Model” of recessions and recoveries

The speed of economic recoveries is generally attributed mainly to economic policies. While this view might be true, a theory suggested by Milton Frie

Deflation in France, hidden behind tax hikes?

The significant divergence between the core inflation measures for France reported respectively by Eurostat and the national statistical office (

Licht- und Schattenseiten einer Gemeinsamen Arbeitslosenversicherung

Die Bruegel-Forscher Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas und Guntram B. Wolff gehen der Frage nach, wie die Verwerfungen am Arbeitsmarkt im Euroraum behoben

Juncker’s investment plan: No risk – no return

President Juncker has presented the key features of the European Commission’s plan to boost investment in the EU. In this blog post we review the most

Measuring Europe’s investment problem

Under the leadership of Vice President Katainen, the Commission has designed a plan which will be announced this week. The announcement of the investm

Do it yourself European Unemployment Insurance

To illustrate our recent Policy Brief, this blog post proposes to give the reader the opportunity to take the main decisions on the design of a Europe

Benefits and drawbacks of European Unemployment Insurance

European Unemployment Insurance is one option for stabilising country specific economic cycles thanks to risk sharing, but it would not substanti

Towards a European unemployment insurance?

The Italian Presidency of the EU has asked Bruegel to give a presentation to European Labour and Social Ministers at the informal EPSCO meeting in Mil

The (not so) Unconventional Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank since 2008

This paper was prepared for the European Parliament's Montary Dialogue with the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. Today, the ECB i

Secular stagnation in today's economy. How can it be addressed?

ECB shows activism but falls short of true QE

Overall, we welcome that the ECB has finally acted with a broad package. We also think that unanimity on the package was a very positive development a

Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s shopping list

In this blogpost, we summarize our recently published paper, in which we discuss in detail the dilemmas for the ECB and the need to act. Inflation for

Addressing weak inflation: The European Central Bank's shopping list

Euro-area inflation has been below 1 percent since October 2013, and medium-term inflation expectations are well below 2 percent. Forecasts of the ret

The threat of low inflation in the eurozone

Is there a risk of deflation in the euro area?

Even though the euro area as a whole has not yet entered into deflation, this picture is worrying. Low inflation rates will make the relative price ad

European Central Bank accountability: how the monetary dialogue could be improved

This Policy Brief was prepared for the European Parliament's Monetary Dialogue with the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. The autho