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How worried does Europe need to be about the coming winter gas season?

Publishing date
16 October 2023
Authors
Simone Tagliapietra
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The European Union is prepared for the coming winter gas season. Today’s fundamentals are solid. EU gas demand continues to be reduced by around 15% below historic averages, liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity has been expanded by 20% while the global LNG market remains well supplied partly thanks to the lack of significant demand growth in China. The EU met its 90% gas storage target two months ahead of a deadline in November, with traders now sending excess gas for storage in Ukraine. The EU has also seen accelerated deployment of green alternatives, such solar panels and heat pumps, which slowly but structurally contribute to lower dependence on gas.

 

Despite all of those positive developments, Europeans should not be complacent. Fears about gas shortages or power cuts have receded, but a persistently higher gas price vis à vis other markets and ongoing price volatility could still have repercussions for the EU industrial structure and the economy at large. Until more LNG liquefaction capacity comes online in 2024, the global LNG market and consequently the EU gas market, will remain tight.

 

It is important to stress, namely after the alleged sabotage of the Balticonnector connecting Finland and Estonia, that Europe's energy security during the winter also hinges on the integrity of its pipeline and LNG infrastructure. Sabotage or disruptions could have severe consequences. It is hence crucial to maintain a high level of alertness and security to safeguard these critical supply routes. 

The Why Axis is a weekly newsletter distributed by Bruegel, bringing you the latest research on European economic policy. 

About the authors

  • Simone Tagliapietra

    Simone Tagliapietra is a Senior fellow at Bruegel.

    He is also a Part-time professor at the Florence School of Transnational Governance (STG) of the European University Institute and an Adjunct professor at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Europe of The Johns Hopkins University.

    His research focuses on the EU climate and energy policy, and on its industrial and social dimensions. With a record of numerous policy and scientific publications, also in leading journals such as Nature and Science, he is the author of Global Energy Fundamentals (Cambridge University Press, 2020) and co-author of The Macroeconomics of Decarbonisation (Cambridge University Press, 2024).

    On the basis of his policy and scientific production, Dr. Tagliapietra regularly supports EU and national institutions in the development of their public policies in the field of climate and energy, also through regular interaction with public decision-makers in EU and national institutions, as well as through regular parliamentary testimonies in the European Parliament and various national parliamentary assemblies inside and outside Europe, such as the French Senate, the UK House of Lords and the US Senate. His columns and policy work are widely published and cited in leading international media.

    Dr. Tagliapietra also is a Member of the Board of Directors of the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) and Senior associate of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden. He holds a PhD in International Political Economy from the Catholic University of Milan, where he previously graduated under the supervision of Professor Alberto Quadrio Curzio and where he also served as an Assistant professor (tenure-track) until 2024. Born in the Dolomites in 1988, he speaks Italian, English and French.

Theme
Energy and climate policy
Keyword
WhyAxis newsletter energy
Language
English

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