Blog post

Time to focus

Publishing date
27 November 2012

Europe’s tardiness to come to agreement on Greece let alone the EU budget shows worrying degree of focus. This week, the European Commission has the opportunity to concentrate European economic governance on the countries and the problems that really matter. Wednesday, the European Commission is releasing its annual growth survey (AGS) and its alert mechanism report (AMR). The AGS is supposed to be the central document guiding European economic governance in the next year. It is supposed to set priorities for fiscal, macroeconomic and structural policies for the EU as a whole. The problem with such a document is that it easily is too broad and misses the focus on the real priorities. In recent papers (see An Assessment of the European Semester, October 2012; On the effectiveness and legitimacy of EU economic policies, November 2012[1]) with colleagues, we have therefore proposed to simultaneously release the AMR. The AMR is the first step of the new macroeconomic imbalance procedure that is supposed to identify countries early on that could be a source of trouble.

The last AMR of February this year failed to trigger focus in the subsequent policy debate. The AMR report had indentified 12 countries beyond the programme countries that should be observed carefully: Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary, Slovenia, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom. For all 12 countries, was produced.

At the same time however, European economic governance in the course of the European Semester continued to be a process putting all countries’ problems essentially on equal footing. All 27 countries of the EU received their recommendations which were discussed and endorsed in the council. Giving recommendations on fiscal and structural issues to all 27 countries makes little sense. In fact, it suggests that all countries have somehow problems and that all these problems are equally relevant.

The simultaneous release of the AMR and AGS should be used as an opportunity to re-focus European governance. Structural and macroeconomic policy recommendations should only be given to countries that are considered to have serious macroeconomic imbalances. In addition, countries such as Germany, whose actions have serious implications for the entire euro zone, should be in focus. Fiscal policy recommendations should only be given to countries under severe fiscal surveillance. That would create a European Semester that really makes sense and puts focus back on the center stage.


[1] B. Marzinotto, G. B. Wolff, M. Hallerberg, An Assessment of the European Semester, October 2012, http://www.ԹϺ.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/751-an-assessment-of-the-european-semester/

B. Marzinotto, G. B. Wolff, M. Hallerberg, On the effectiveness and legitimacy of EU economic policies, November 2012,

http://www.ԹϺ.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/758-on-the-effectiveness-and-legitimacy-of-eu-economic-policies/

About the authors

  • Guntram B. Wolff

    Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). 

    From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

    An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020,  ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and advisory board of Elcano. He is also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media. 

Related content