Blog post

Capital controls will put the euro at risk

The currency in Nicosia will no longer be worth the same as it is in any other country, says Guntram Wolff.

Publishing date
26 March 2013

This piece was first published in the Financial Times.

The currency in Nicosia will no longer be worth the same as it is in any other country, says Guntram Wolff.

Cypriot lawmakers have passed a bill that paves the way for . The legislation allows Cyprus’s government to introduce limits on transfers of bank deposits and cash withdrawals. It gives considerable discretionary powers to the state. Neither the European Central Bank nor the European Commission prevented the move. Both deemed it necessary to avoid uncontrolled outflows during the renegotiation of the island’s bailout deal. But the eurozone has now embarked on a process that endangers both the currency area and the single market.

The most important characteristic of a monetary union is the ability to move money – without any restrictions – from one bank to another in the currency area. , the value of a euro in Cyprus is no longer worth the same as a euro held by any other bank in the eurozone. A euro in Nicosia cannot be used to buy goods in Frankfurt without limits. Effectively, it means that a Cypriot euro is not a euro any more.

The “bail-in” of depositors at the Bank of Cyprus, which was agreed on Monday as part of the , will impose heavy losses on deposits above €100,000. This is an improvement on the generalised tax that was rejected last week by the Cypriot parliament, which would have punished even insured depositors and depositors in solvent banks.

Nevertheless, the problem of capital controls remains. Capital controls introduce the possibility for governments, both in Cyprus and perhaps in future bailed out countries, to decide whether a euro can move or not. This undermines the single monetary system and therefore the unity of the eurozone.

The eurogroup, the group of eurozone finance ministers, is well aware of the dangers of the road it has chosen. It has said that the “administrative measures” should be temporary, proportionate, and non-discriminatory. It remains to be seen what exactly is meant by these three adjectives but they seem to point in the right direction.

For example, I hope that “non-discriminatory” means that no distinction will be made between a transfer between two banks in Cyprus and a transfer between two banks in two different eurozone countries. Ideally, “proportionate” means that the administrative measures will only be applied to banks that are troubled – not all of them. “Temporary” should mean a period of a few days. But the capital controls in Iceland, introduced in 2008, are still in place. They ought to serve as a reminder that even temporary capital controls can be hard to get rid of.

What will happen now? There is a significant risk of bank runs. The eurogroup – eventually – took the right decision to protect deposits of less than €100,000. This should somewhat limit any rush for the exits for most savers. Yet, given the structure of the proposed deposit bail-in, a big number of large deposits in Cyprus are likely to be withdrawn immediately. Whether savers with smaller protected sums follow their lead will depend on the credibility of the eurozone response.

So what should policy makers do? Well, as it happens, the eurozone has clearly established rules for this kind of problem. It should follow them. The ECB is required to provide liquidity to any bank deemed solvent by its supervisor against appropriate collateral. The eurozone should provide liquidity to replace all outflowing deposits – so long as good collateral is available.

In a world of perfect information, where solvency assessments were instant and accurate, the central bank’s liquidity facility could take the place of the deposits. A solvent bank, then, could continue to operate normally. Perfect, fast valuations are not possible, but the central bank must nonetheless do its best to act as liquidity provider.

Furthermore, in these exceptional circumstances, the ECB must be ready to take on more risk than usual, by lowering its collateral standards. Doing so would send a powerful signal to markets and all other member states that there are no implicit limits to the eurozone payments system.

At some stage, however, the ECB may become queasy about the deteriorating quality of the posted collateral. If that moment comes, and banks still need help, new bailout funds may become necessary. With this solution, Europe would demonstrate its resolve to preserve the euro. The imposition of capital controls, however, risks sending a fatal signal to the markets that could very well trigger future bank runs elsewhere.

The writer is deputy director of the Bruegel think tank

About the authors

  • Guntram B. Wolff

    Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). 

    From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

    An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020,  ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and advisory board of Elcano. He is also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

    Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media. 

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